AGP Executive Report

Energy & Infrastructure: Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith unveiled a proposed 1,200-km West Coast oil pipeline to Roberts Bank, pitching it as a catalyst for $200B+ in investment and major jobs—while critics say Ottawa details are thin and taxpayers could be on the hook. Federal-Provincial Housing: Build Canada Homes Act received royal assent, setting up the new Crown corporation framework to scale affordable housing delivery, with thousands of homes already in motion. Banking & Consumer Costs: CIBC agreed to a proposed $10M settlement in a class action over repeated NSF fees on re-presented pre-authorized debits, with court approval needed. Pensions & AI Data Centres: CPP Investments closed a US$1.75B deal with EQT and EdgeConneX to back AI data-centre build-outs, betting on durable digital infrastructure demand. Tech & Sustainability: Vancouver’s Wafr Technologies raised $100M toward a Canadian AI research lab focused on cutting AI data-centre water use. Corporate Deals: Canfor completed its acquisition of Calgary’s PinkWood, adding 120 jobs and major I-joist capacity. Indigenous & Pipeline Scrutiny: B.C. First Nations want more details and consultations on a $44B+ Roberts Bank pipeline proposal.

USMCA Shock: The Trump administration declined to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, triggering a decade-long wind-down clock and annual reviews—raising uncertainty for Canada’s $2T North American trade and weighing on loonie and rate expectations. Canada-Philippines Trade Push: PM Mark Carney and President Marcos wrapped talks in Vancouver, using Jollibee’s Canada expansion as a jobs-and-investment example while discussing the Philippines’ shift to upper-middle-income status and replacing grants with investment. Food Security & Grocery Costs: Ottawa unveiled a $3.2B National Food Security Strategy aimed at boosting domestic production, expanding food hubs and terminals, and financing processing to lower grocery bills. Housing Watch: Fraser Valley home prices edged down again in June (26% below 2022 peak), while GTA sales rose and listings fell, hinting at tighter conditions later in 2026. Payments & Banking Competition: Zelle’s low bank-set limits are pushing consumers toward PayPal/Venmo/Cash App for larger transfers, intensifying fintech pressure on bank-led rails. Crypto in the Mainstream: Kraken became FIFA’s official crypto exchange supporter for World Cup 2026, signaling a more regulated, compliance-focused era for crypto sports marketing. Energy/Infrastructure Deal: Canada and B.C. outlined a cooperative prosperity agreement tied to pipelines, LNG permitting, and major transmission funding.

Canada–Philippines Strategic Partnership: Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. elevated ties to a strategic partnership in Vancouver, aiming for a Canada–Philippines free trade deal, deeper defence and maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, and closer economic links backed by the one-million-strong Filipino community. North America Trade Shock: The U.S. declined to renew USMCA in its current form after the first joint review, keeping the pact in force while triggering annual review steps—raising uncertainty for long-horizon business planning. B.C.–Ottawa Prosperity Deal: Carney and B.C. Premier David Eby signed a multibillion-dollar agreement tied to LNG and infrastructure, including support for the Red Chris mine expansion and major grid and tunnel funding, while also keeping the northern oil tanker ban in place. Foreign Agent Rules: Ottawa’s new foreign influence transparency regulations will publish names and activities but won’t reveal specific payment amounts publicly, citing “sensitive” information. Markets & Deals: CIRO halted and then resumed trading in Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) pending news; Imperial Metals said Ottawa will contribute $500M to its Red Chris Block Cave project. Retail Expansion: Walmart will open a 2027 Ottawa Supercentre at Place d’Orléans, adding pharmacy and pickup/delivery services.

USMCA Countdown: The U.S. says it won’t renew USMCA in its current form, triggering a 10-year sunset path with annual reviews unless Canada and Mexico agree to major changes—raising uncertainty for North American trade and supply chains. Markets & Jobs: U.S. equity futures bounced after a South Korea tech selloff, while June payroll growth came in well below expectations, with attention turning to upcoming jobs data and Fed pricing. Canadian Fintech & Retail Investing: moomoo Canada opens a second flagship store in Markham to expand investor education and in-person access. Regulatory & Reporting Rules: Canada moves to implement an “Access Equals Delivery” model for financial statements and MD&A, tightening how companies must provide information. Crypto Compliance Push: Treasure Global says it secured Canadian MSB registration to accelerate Oxi Wallet’s global expansion. Energy & Resources: Hudbay wins Peru permit approval to lift Constancia mill throughput to 34M tonnes annually; Methanex idles a Trinidad plant, with implications for FX and revenues. Tech & Infrastructure: Abaxx reports record trading volume on its exchange; Roomvu launches AI-built landing pages for real estate lead conversion.

USMCA Clock Starts: The Trump administration declined to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact “in its current form,” keeping it alive for now but triggering annual reviews until it expires in 2036, with talks focused on tightening auto rules of origin and other economic-security terms—raising fresh uncertainty for Canadian exporters and supply chains. Central Banking Watch: Fed chair Kevin Warsh made his international debut, saying inflation is still too high while opposing “forward guidance,” a stance that’s already shaping market expectations ahead of the ECB/BoE/BoC policy panel. Canada Food Security Push: Ottawa launched a new $3B, 10-year National Food Security Strategy aimed at boosting northern food access via more competition, infrastructure, and year-round production like greenhouses and vertical farms. Canada-Europe Finance & Trade Culture: Mark Carney confirmed Canada will join Eurovision in 2027, adding another high-profile cultural trade signal as Canada’s economy and identity remain in the spotlight. Markets & Tech Sentiment: US stocks slipped as tech sold off, while Robinhood unveiled a broader crypto/AI push—its own blockchain, tokenized stocks, and DeFi—signaling continued retail finance experimentation. Mining Update: FireFly Metals reported strong Green Bay drilling results in Newfoundland, reinforcing high-grade copper-gold continuity that could support an upscaled restart plan.

Canada–Philippines Visit: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to meet Canadian business leaders in Vancouver on a four-day trip aimed at deals across energy, mining, IT, telecoms, nuclear and financial services. Trade Uncertainty: Canada, the U.S. and Mexico will hold virtual CUSMA talks as the U.S. signals it may not renew the pact—keeping the agreement alive but raising planning risk for cross-border firms. Banking & Markets: TELUS begins CEO transition with Victor Dodig taking the helm after Darren Entwistle’s retirement, while investors watch dividend and ETF flows as YieldMax posts weekly distributions. Data Centres in Alberta: AVAX One signs a non-binding LOI to buy the Bantry Data Site in Alberta for energy-advantaged AI/HPC expansion. Central Banking: Kevin Warsh joins Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem at the ECB forum in Sintra as major central banks weigh inflation and growth trade-offs. Household Relief: Alberta opens applications for a $100 affordability payment to replace a gasoline tax cut. Corporate Finance: Nuvei names new COO, CFO and CPTO to drive global growth.

Ontario Auto Insurance Overhaul: Starting July 1, nine types of accident benefits in Ontario become optional, letting drivers potentially save about $75–$100 a year—but insurers warn opting out (especially income replacement) can create major financial risk after serious crashes. Canada Day Policy Switches: A wider set of July 1 rules also kicks in, including tenant rights to install AC units if landlords don’t provide them, plus changes expanding pharmacists’ publicly funded care. Markets & Economy: Canada’s April GDP rose 0.5% month over month, helping cool recession talk, while investors watch how the Bank of Canada responds. Corporate Moves: KKR agreed to buy EDF’s North American renewables assets for $4.2B, aiming to benefit from rising power demand tied to AI and electrification. Housing & Construction: Building construction investment grew 7.8% year over year in April, with residential gains leading. TFSA Basics: Multiple explainers focus on TFSA rules for global investments and how much savers may need for retirement. Energy & Finance: Santander Consumer Bank partners with Taiga Motors to offer retail EV financing through dealer networks. Public Safety: A charter boat sank off Richmond, B.C., with four rescued and six presumed drowned; recovery is complicated by deep water.

Shell Deal Watch: Shell is nearing a roughly $1B sale of its South Africa fuel-station network to Adnoc’s retail arm, a move that would transfer control of about 600 sites (around 10% of the market) and fits Shell’s plan to shed non-core assets while keeping focus on long-term production, including in Canada. Federal Politics & Finance: Pierre Poilievre reshuffled his Conservative front bench, naming Ontario MP Michael Chong as finance critic as he moves from foreign affairs, replacing Jasraj Hallan who shifts to national revenue. Energy & Jobs: Methanex says it will idle its Ti­tan methanol plant in Trinidad indefinitely after failing to secure a new natural gas supply contract, with about 140 permanent jobs likely affected as the site goes into preservation mode. Macro Snapshot: Statistics Canada reports the economy rebounded in April with 0.5% real GDP growth, led by oil and gas, with gains also in manufacturing, construction and public sectors. Markets Plumbing: CIRO issued trading halts for Baylin Technologies and Chemtrade Logistics income fund ahead of pending delistings, while trading resumed for Premium Income Corporation. Investing & Infrastructure: CIBC Global Asset Management launched a private infrastructure fund with J.P. Morgan Asset Management, signaling continued push into private markets.

AI & Water Governance: First Nations leaders are pushing back on Bill C-37, arguing Ottawa’s proposed First Nations Clean Water Act may not settle who truly controls water on First Nation territory, as a court fight over Alberta’s approval tied to an AI data centre highlights the stakes. Banking & Markets: BMO agreed to buy Euroz Hartleys’ Australia-based capital markets business, aiming to deepen its metals and mining investment banking reach as global dealmaking stays active. Public Finance & Housing: Montreal will cover the interest cost of rent relief loans for about 150 financially struggling tenants, offering up to $5,000 repayable over five years ahead of July 1 lease changes. Policy & Consumer Impact: Saskatchewan is moving toward quicker impaired-driving administrative penalties, including higher fines and victim surcharges for failing roadside breath tests. Healthcare Costs & Labour: B.C. nurses issued a 72-hour strike notice over burnout, violence risks, and staffing shortages, with negotiations tied to a rejected wage offer. Corporate Moves: Zymeworks will buy Theravance Biopharma for US$929M to expand respiratory drug royalties, while Tilray agreed to acquire HelloMD to strengthen direct-to-patient medical cannabis access in Canada. Markets Watch: TSX slid as metal mining shares fell on weaker gold prices, though the index stayed on track for a strong quarterly run.

Canada-Philippines State Visit: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will travel to Canada July 1–4, meeting PM Mark Carney in Vancouver to push defense logistics, economic resilience, and cooperation on energy and critical minerals, with talks also aimed at speeding a Canada–ASEAN free-trade path. Energy Bills Relief: Ottawa is expanding the Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program to Quebec, B.C., Nova Scotia and P.E.I., offering no-cost retrofits (heat pumps, insulation and air sealing) to cut annual energy costs by $300–$1,700 for eligible households. Offshore Wind in Nova Scotia: Regulators cleared five companies and two consortia to bid for seabed licences, setting up a formal call for bids later this year for Canada’s first offshore wind farms. AI Finance & Markets: Wall Street’s deal mood brightened as SpaceX and Alphabet’s record equity raises sparked expectations for more mega-deals, while Canada’s CIRO issued a trading halt for Honeywell CDR (HON). Biotech Pipeline: Health Canada approved Biodexa’s Serenta Phase 3 trial expansion in familial adenomatous polyposis, adding 3–4 Canadian centers to an overall 168-patient study. Public Markets Listing: GuideAI Health Corp. begins trading on Cboe Canada under ticker GDAI, marking another step for AI-driven cardiovascular diagnostics.

World Cup & Borders: Canada’s Round of 16 run is colliding with visa and entry headaches for foreign teams and fans, with the tournament’s three-country format turning immigration coordination into a real-world stress test. Canada Soccer Milestone: Stephen Eustáquio’s stoppage-time winner sent Canada to the Round of 16 for the first time ever, and the next match is set for July 4 versus the Netherlands or Morocco. Crypto Goes Mainstream at FIFA: Kraken’s official crypto exchange sponsorship and FIFA-linked prediction-market tools are reshaping how fans place bets and trade match outcomes. Housing Ethics Clash: Pierre Poilievre is pushing for an ethics probe into Ottawa and B.C.’s plan to buy unsold condos to convert them into affordable housing, calling it a “condo bailout.” Telecom Consumer Pressure: New CRTC rules target “junk fees,” but reporting suggests many Canadians still doubt they’ll see real savings. Energy & Safety: Newfoundland and Labrador’s offshore regulator says a Hibernia oil spill and gas leak could have led to a fatal fire or explosion. Health Research Investment: Lawson Research Institute unveiled Canada’s first Siemens BIOGRAPH One PET/MRI scanner, backed by major workplace-injury research funding. Utilities Capex: SaskEnergy is boosting 2025-26 capital investment to $430M+ to expand capacity and reliability. Markets Watch: Deutsche Bank lifted its Micron price forecast as margins surged, while BHP shares cooled after a strong run. Indigenous Repatriation: A Swiss collector is working with First Nations groups to repatriate artifacts, but sale and valuation hurdles remain.

Labour Rights vs “Economic Security”: A new Senate report argues the right to strike should be “workable” even as it targets parts of the Canada Labour Code and Minister of Labour powers—sparking renewed concern about anti-union backstops in federally regulated sectors. Consumer Telecom Costs: The CRTC is tightening rules to curb “junk fees,” including limits on activation/cancellation/modification charges, but critics warn savings may be muted by industry pushback. Fraud and Enforcement: Peel police arrested Navdeep Boparai, accused in a $1.4M Ponzi-style scheme targeting elderly investors with alleged guaranteed returns. Student Visa Pressure: A new analysis says Canada is losing Indian students as study-permit approvals fall, rejections rise, and financial requirements tighten—while Germany and Ireland gain. Housing Affordability Clash: Alberta’s AISH/ADAP changes are criticized for cutting earnings thresholds and increasing clawbacks, hitting low-income renters hard. Trade and Security Links: Canada and Turkey sign up for talks on a free trade agreement and expand cooperation on trade, investment, energy, critical minerals, and defence ahead of NATO in Ankara. Black Entrepreneurship Boost: Ottawa pledges $5.6M to strengthen Black-owned businesses in Alberta via training, mentorship, and market access. Food Strategy Gap: Canada’s $2.1B food security plan is criticized for not mentioning plant-based proteins despite calls to diversify. Crypto Compliance Move: Qatar’s QFIU signs an MoU with FINTRAC to improve cross-border financial intelligence sharing under FATF frameworks.

Tax Administration Watch: The CRA ombudsman has opened an investigation into delays on complex T1 adjustments, citing complaints and possible breaches of the Taxpayer Bill of Rights as processing can stretch to 47 weeks. Public Finance & Accountability: Ontario’s Finance Ministry spent $21.4M on taxpayer-funded ads in 2025-26, mostly tied to the “Protect Ontario” campaign, adding to a growing total. Housing & Household Costs: Extreme weather is pushing up home insurance claims and premiums, with insured catastrophic losses averaging nearly $2B a year since 2009, according to a Statistics Canada update. Energy & Industry: Saskatchewan backs Ottawa’s nuclear push, arguing the province’s uranium position is key to Canada becoming a nuclear “superpower.” Trade & Investment: Canada’s China EV pathway moves forward as Geely’s Lotus brand is set to arrive next month under the Carney-Xi deal allowing up to 49,000 Chinese EVs annually at reduced tariffs. Critical Minerals: Western and northern provinces and territories are aligning on a shared critical minerals strategy aimed at faster approvals and stronger investor confidence.

Banking & Regulation: RBC was hit with a $4.25M FCAC administrative penalty for a Bank Act consumer violation, adding to scrutiny on how big banks treat customers. Central Banking & Markets: A Reuters report flags fresh legal and policy pressure on U.S. Fed independence, with the Supreme Court weighing whether a Trump move to fire a Fed governor was lawful. Crypto Compliance: A Canada-focused explainer breaks down the “Travel Rule,” showing how crypto exchanges share sender/recipient info for larger transfers and what that means for privacy and AML. Trade & Investment: Canada’s push to diversify trade takes another step as leaders line up a Philippines-Canada free trade push, while Geely’s Lotus EVs are set to enter Canada under a China–Canada tariff deal. Energy & Defence: Ottawa’s $800M Griffon helicopter upgrade is paused over technical complexity, while Canada also signals nuclear expansion ambitions. Fraud & Enforcement: Punjab Police froze 63,749 bank accounts tied to cyber fraud worth about Rs 540 crore—an example of how enforcement is increasingly targeting financial trails. Consumer/Household Pressure: Food insecurity is rising in Montreal’s West Island, with a community hub expanding to meet demand. Sports Business: Kalshi secured FIFA World Cup branding exposure via ADI Predictstreet, underscoring how prediction markets are chasing major sports audiences.

Philippines-Canada Trade Push: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will visit Canada July 1–4, with Prime Minister Mark Carney aiming to accelerate talks on a Canada–Philippines free trade agreement and a Canada–ASEAN FTA, targeting completion this year and focusing on trade, investment, energy, critical minerals, and defense cooperation. University Leadership & Finance Tech: U of T named economist Kenneth Corts as its first vice-president for people, finance and digital services, consolidating HR, labour relations, financial services and IT under one role starting July 1, 2026. Housing Finance Shock in Metro Vancouver: Canada and B.C. are moving ahead with a condo-conversion plan to turn 2,200+ vacant units into affordable homes, but critics warn it could become a developer bailout while details remain thin. Energy & Environment: Researchers allege LNG Canada’s flare system is emitting more toxic gases than disclosed, while LNG Canada says it operates safely. Capital Markets: ISC shareholders approved Plenary Americas’ all-cash acquisition at CAD$51 per share, and Next Edge’s 2028 Investment Grade Bond Trust renewed its at-the-market equity program up to $75M. Corporate Moves: Bombardier redeemed all outstanding C$150M 7.35% debentures due 2026, continuing its debt-reduction push. Banking & Regulation: OSFI’s stability buffer cut is freeing about $74B for Canada’s big banks, reshaping near-term lending capacity.

Canada–U.S. Infrastructure: U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has delayed the Gordie Howe bridge debut, pushing to renegotiate for a bigger toll cut—another sign of strain in cross-border dealmaking. Bank of Canada Watch: The C.D. Howe Institute says the central bank should publish an interest-rate forecast to make inflation messaging clearer for Canadians. Inflation Sentiment: Separate reporting says public support remains strong for a 2% inflation target, but affordability concerns are rising. Energy & Industry: B.C.’s electricity planning is criticized for not scaling fast enough for mines, LNG, housing and clean tech; meanwhile Alberta’s LPG exports by rail are surging with U.S. summer demand. Markets & Deals: CPP Investments and Lendlease are selling London’s Elephant Park rental portfolio to Greystar (expected C$670M net to CPP Investments). Corporate Finance: Onex and co-investors are set to buy AirSprint, expanding institutional backing for Canada’s fractional jet market. Consumer Safety: Health Canada issued a recall for a solar wireless power bank due to fire risk.