AGP Executive Report

Inflation & Tariffs: Canada’s July inflation hit 3%, with gasoline up sharply as Middle East shipping disruptions fed costs—just as Ottawa races to avert looming US tariff shocks. Trade Talks: LeBlanc says the Canada-U.S. deal work is “not yet done,” with negotiators still trying to stop new 50% tariff moves. Clean Energy Push: Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador and Ottawa reached a tentative Churchill Falls deal, with up to C$10B in federal support tied to hydro upgrades, Gull Island development, wind and transmission—potentially the biggest clean power investment in North America. Data Centres & Sovereignty: Doug Ford urged Ontario to approve data centres to keep Canadian data “in Canada,” warning against letting US control take over. Banking Moves: BMO and RBC are relocating/consolidating downtown Brandon branches, underscoring ongoing branch footprint reshaping. Markets & Rates: US 30-year yields jumped to near two-decade highs, lifting Canadian bond yields and adding pressure to long-term borrowing costs. Corporate Finance: Air Canada finalized an $800M substantial issuer bid, using proceeds tied to its Aeroplan equity investment. Energy & LNG: An Indigenous-majority LNG export plan in Quebec targets Europe, aiming for up to 15M tonnes annually. Tech/Investing Theme: Multiple earnings-call transcripts highlighted growth and margin shifts across Canadian and US-listed firms, while investors weigh what higher rates and tariff uncertainty mean for valuations.

Canada-U.S. Tariffs: With a fresh 50% tariff round looming, Abacus Data finds most Canadians expect negative fallout; 36% back counter-tariffs, 30% want continued negotiations, and just 18% support concessions like easing dairy rules or ending U.S. alcohol bans. Banking & Sports Marketing: RBC will sponsor Wrexham AFC as official bank partner and wealth management partner for 2026/27, with its branding on kits and community support via the Wrexham AFC Foundation. Inflation Watch: Statistics Canada reports July inflation at 3%, driven by a gas price rebound, keeping rate-hike chatter alive. Corporate/Markets: CIRO halted and then resumed trading for Algoma Steel Group (ASTL). Energy Transition: Edmonton is set to host Carbon Capture Canada 2026 as Pathways carbon capture decisions approach. Mining & Capital Markets: NexGen Energy says it’s in regular dialogue with BHP about its Rook I uranium project while planning to raise $1B. Real Estate Investing: Margaux REIT buys a 500-unit Saint-Basile self-storage asset near Montreal for $12.5M. Healthcare: Health Canada authorizes elinzanetant (Lynkuet) for hot flashes/night sweats in breast cancer patients. Crypto/AI Compute: HIVE Digital shares jump after a $350M, five-year GPU cloud contract.

Federal Science Push: Ottawa awarded a $768.6M contract to build a new science campus in Ottawa, bringing together CFIA, CBSA, Health Canada and PHAC to strengthen public health, food safety and border security. AI Governance in Practice: Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation won a key court step in its fight against a proposed AI data centre, clearing the way for a judicial review over Alberta’s water licence approval. Housing Support Boost: Saskatchewan increased monthly housing benefits for low-income renters and people fleeing domestic abuse, doubling the “seeking safety” stream and adding a one-time housing help payment for new clients. Tax Reform Focus: Liberal MPs are holding pre-budget consultations, with tax code simplification and small-business changes flagged as priorities for the fall budget. Trade & Tariffs Watch: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said Canada-U.S. tariff talks are “encouraging,” urging renewal of USMCA and highlighting dairy supply management as a sensitive issue. Big Tech Credit for AI: Reports say Alphabet is tapping bond markets again, underscoring how U.S. tech firms are using debt to fund AI expansion. Retail Expansion: Cost.U.Less will open a 50,000-square-foot Hagåtña flagship on Aug. 28 while closing its Tamuning location Aug. 27.

Churchill Falls energy deal: Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec are set to announce an “energy security” framework Monday, after months of talks over how to share Churchill River power as the 1969 contract runs to 2041. Canada-U.S. trade push: A Manitoba-led delegation used the Iowa State Fair to press Canada’s case with U.S. stakeholders as negotiators stay in Washington ahead of a looming trade-deal deadline. Markets & rates: Bloomberg reports bonds are taking a bigger hit as central banks outside the U.S. face overlapping pressures, raising the risk that “diversification” won’t protect portfolios. TFSA investing chatter: Multiple pieces focus on Canadian dividend and TFSA strategies, including defensive picks and monthly-income ideas. Housing in the North: A Yukon housing shortage is squeezing employers and public services, with a non-profit warning they can’t attract workers without more supply. Finance sector risk: A study flags “financial derisking” and “humanitarian derisking” as anti-terror and sanctions rules push banks and charities to cut services.

Canada-U.S. Tariff Talks: Ottawa says negotiations are “progressing well” and Washington also wants a deal before Aug. 19, when 50% tariffs on about $20B of Canadian exports are set to hit—though key sectors like energy, potash, fish and critical minerals are exempt. Tax Reform Push: In pre-budget consultations, Liberal officials and tax experts say Canada’s tax code overhaul will start with small-business changes, aiming to simplify a system that’s grown into “two books.” Banking & Markets: Ontario will require bail recipients to pay full cash security deposits within two business days starting Aug. 17, tightening accountability for repeat offenders. Corporate Governance: Richards Group Inc. appointed Ernst & Young as auditor, replacing PwC with no modified opinions or reportable events. Crime & Finance: RCMP’s Project NoCargo recovered 392 fraud-linked stolen vehicles worth about $28M at major ports, targeting organized crime’s vehicle-finance pipeline. Energy & Infrastructure Investing: Worley is expanding nuclear-related work in Canada as nuclear planning returns to the mainstream, while Brookfield reported a Q2 earnings beat and reiterated capital-allocation targets. Local Growth: Saskatchewan led building permit value growth in June (+101.6% m/m), a potential signal for construction demand.

Port & Infrastructure: Construction is underway on the Port of Montreal’s expansion, starting with a new wharf after preparatory work in Contrecoeur—another “nation-building” push aimed at boosting trade capacity on the St. Lawrence. Tax Policy: Ottawa is preparing long-awaited tax code reform “one bite at a time,” with small-business changes flagged as a near-term priority ahead of the fall budget under PM Mark Carney. Investment & Business Climate: A Fraser Institute study says non-residential business investment in Saskatchewan (along with Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador) lagged depreciation from 2018-2025, weighing on productivity and long-term growth. Household Finance: TD Insurance finds a growing “insurance confidence gap,” with 33% of Canadians considering cutting coverage as costs rise and many unsure what their policies actually cover. Energy & Cost Pressure: The Yukon Conservation Society is urging plug-in solar as utility bills climb, criticizing the territory’s pause of the microgeneration program. Corporate/Markets: Sucro reports a sharp revenue drop in Q2 2026 but improved profitability as newly commissioned Ontario and U.S. refineries ramp up. Canada in Global Finance: Canada’s CEO summit push is drawing attention as opposition forms around Carney’s invitation-only Canada Investment Summit in Toronto.

M&A Watch: American Candle Lake has made a takeover offer for Sweden’s Evolution AB worth 132 billion kronor (about $13.8B), tied to Swedish mandatory buyout rules as it pushes its stake to 30.02%. Household Finance: A Fraser Institute study says the typical Canadian family spent 42% of income on taxes in 2025—more than housing, food and clothing combined—highlighting how the tax burden keeps rising. Provincial Cost Relief: Alberta’s $100 energy rebate has enrolled about 1.2M of 3.4M eligible Albertans, with privacy and portal friction blamed for slower uptake. Banking & Privacy: A federal court has approved a class-action settlement for alleged 2020 privacy breaches in government online accounts, with claims open until Feb. 3, 2027. Markets & Investing: The TSX notched record highs in July and record closes in August, with energy leading gains as investors weigh trade and rate expectations. Energy Sector Deal: Chevron will license enhanced-oil-recovery surfactant tech to Canada-based ZL Chemicals under its Vantis brand. Tech & Security: OpenAI reported a man to U.S. authorities after he discussed killing his ex-girlfriend in ChatGPT conversations, leading to his arrest.

AI in the boardroom: KPMG Canada teamed up with OpenAI as an “Elite Partner” to help firms move past AI experiments into real workflow transformation, including faster deal document review. Payments & data sovereignty: Francisco Partners agreed to buy Moneris from BMO and RBC for about $2B, raising concerns in Canada about control of payments infrastructure. Retail tech spend: A new Grocery Tech Trends Study finds Canadian grocers are still investing in tech despite cost pressure, focusing on tools that improve operations and customer experience. Language training squeeze: Canada’s official language programs reported a 13% drop in students in 2025, blaming unpredictable visa policy. Corporate deals: Brookfield and La Caisse completed their acquisition of Boralex, while Lactalis agreed to buy Saputo’s UK dairy business for about £988M. Market watch: Global shares mostly rose on steadier rate expectations, while bitcoin held near $60,000.

Prudential Levy Pass-Through: Canada’s Treasury says if banks and insurers pass on a new prudential levy, the average hit to borrowing costs would be under 1 basis point and insurance premiums under 0.2%, arguing the incidence would be “modest.” B.C. Tax Pressure: A B.C. legislative committee urges repeal of the planned PST expansion to more professional services ahead of the Oct. 1, 2026 start date. Data Centre Water Fight: Kevin O’Leary’s bid to block a First Nation’s judicial review of Wonder Valley water permits was dismissed, with the case set to proceed on whether consultation happened. Canada-U.S. Tariff Deadline: Ottawa faces rising pressure as 50% U.S. tariffs on hundreds of Canadian product categories near, with negotiators seeking an interim deal in Washington. Payments Deal Watch: RBC and BMO agreed to sell Moneris to Francisco Partners for about $2B, with a long-term referral arrangement after closing. B.C. Finance Minister Health: Brenda Bailey says she has early-stage, treatable cancer and expects to return for the fall legislative session. AI/Training Caution: Research warns AI training for older workers can backfire if it adds demand without enough support. Markets & FX: The Canadian dollar was quoted at $1 CAD = $0.?? (Forex item: $158.22 USD per unit in Jamaica’s summary).

Data Centres Policy: Ontario’s new data-centre framework would make new large facilities pay all electricity costs and face higher rates than other industrial users, while Ford rules out cash incentives—aimed at managing AI-driven power demand and municipal backlash. Pensions & Asset Management: La Caisse reported a mid-year 2026 return of 5.1% over six months, 6.4% over five years and 7.5% over ten years, noting stock-market outperformance versus private assets. Federal Procurement: Minister Valdez announced early steps under the Small Business Procurement Program to simplify federal contracting and expand opportunities for Canadian small firms, backed by $79.9M over five years. Banking & Markets: ATB Financial posted strong Q1 results with revenue up 17.6% to $694.2M, loans up 9.0% to $61.6B and deposits up 19.1% to $52.6B. Crypto Lending: A new wave of BTC-collateral loans is offering cash without credit checks, with rates starting in the single digits and risk tied to Bitcoin price swings. Trade Talks: Canada’s LeBlanc meets U.S. trade officials as the Aug. 19 tariff deadline nears, with CUSMA exemptions potentially at risk. Corporate/Investing: Fidelity Bank Ghana urged better trade systems and data quality to help traders—especially women—unlock growth.

CUSMA shock: A new report warns a breakdown of the Canada-U.S. trade deal could cost Canada over 100,000 jobs, with knock-on hits to manufacturing, services, and household spending. Banking & payments: Industry voices warn the Moneris sale to U.S. private equity could raise data-sovereignty and payments-system risk, as regulators weigh approvals. Household stress: Canada’s insolvencies rose more than 11% in June, driven mainly by consumer filings amid higher debt and pressure on purchasing power. Immigration enforcement: In Calgary, international graduates from Punjab say CBSA officers “raided” a protest site tied to rejected PGWP applications, escalating pressure on IRCC. Energy & markets: Suncor announced sweeping leadership changes as CEO Rich Kruger steps down in April 2027. Corporate finance: Air Canada shares surged after it sold a 25% stake in Aeroplan in a deal reported at about $2.5B, reshaping its loyalty economics. Tech governance: A new report flags that AI adoption is outpacing governance, with rising incidents tied to autonomous systems. Labour: National Steel Car workers in Hamilton launched a strike after rejecting the company’s contract offer.

Air Canada Deal Watch: Air Canada is selling a 25% stake in Aeroplan to Blackstone and Canadian pension funds for C$2.5B, valuing the loyalty business at about C$10B; Air Canada keeps control and can repurchase the stake later, with proceeds earmarked for debt repayment and share buybacks. Market Plumbing: CIRO issued trading halts for Steadright Critical Minerals (SCM) pending news, and scheduled a public CIRO disciplinary hearing for David Grahame Lillie over undisclosed outside activities and client-related conflicts. AI Policy & Consumer Risk: Ontario’s Stephen Crawford is urging a federal “all-out ban” on AI deepfakes and impersonations, citing massive losses from fake political/crypto videos. Small Business Pressure: A Zensurance survey finds confidence down sharply and many small firms operating with little cash and lacking insurance coverage. Trade Shock Ahead: A CFIB survey warns Trump’s looming 50% tariff deadline could slash revenue for many CUSMA exporters. Real Assets & Climate Resilience: CRE owners are rethinking design assumptions as extreme weather strains older buildings, pushing resilience upgrades higher on the agenda.

Air Canada & Aeroplan Deal: Air Canada is selling a 25% stake in Aeroplan for $2.5B to Blackstone and Canadian pension funds, with proceeds aimed at debt paydown and a planned share buyback. Pensions & Domestic Investing: OMERS says it added $1B in Canadian stocks in the first half and is “shoring up” key holdings, while also targeting more Canada-focused investments. Municipal Finance: Peterborough is joining Ontario’s ONE Joint Investment Board to use the Prudent Investor Standard, widening how cities can invest excess cash. Health-Care Cost Control: A McGill/Douglas-led Lancet Psychiatry study finds a community-based youth mental health model (ACCESS Open Minds) cut system costs by about $4,355 per patient annually. Trade & Growth Strategy: Canada is pushing to conclude a free trade deal with ASEAN this year, aiming to deepen Southeast Asia ties and diversify trade. Tech & Capital Markets: Nvidia is partnering with major Wall Street firms to raise up to $500B for AI infrastructure financing, drawing “circular deal” concerns. Local Infrastructure Funding: Salmon Arm secured $58K for a long-term asset management plan under a federal community grants program.

Jobs & Resilience: Statistics Canada says employment jumped 75,100 in July and the jobless rate fell to 6.4%, beating forecasts and reinforcing the idea the economy is absorbing tariff and geopolitical shocks. Market Microstructure: CIRO issued trading halts and then resumed trading for Thunder Gold (TGOL) and Digital Commodities (DIGI), citing pending news. Housing & Infrastructure: Ottawa will fund the William Street Sanitary Pumping Station expansion with up to $3.8M under the Build Communities Strong Fund, aimed at supporting wastewater capacity for growth. Health & Climate: Health Canada backed Quebec City-area work with $354,500 to strengthen preparedness for extreme heat impacts on the health system. Real Estate Deal: GO REIT-led buyers will acquire H&R REIT in a $6.7B transaction, creating a major residential REIT platform across Canada and the U.S. Crypto & Compliance: AUSTRAC moved against a crypto ATM operator, highlighting how compliance costs are crushing cash-to-crypto models. Investing in Credit: Polar Asset’s CRS Fund-II raised $215M for Canadian credit risk transfer deals, targeting balance-sheet flexibility for banks. Energy & Metals: Canada Nickel is moving toward construction of its Crawford mine, pending financing, after federal approval.

Moneris Sale: RBC and BMO agreed to sell Moneris Solutions to Francisco Partners in a roughly $2-billion deal, with both banks taking a 50% stake and expecting sizable after-tax gains; Moneris says the buyer will help modernize payments for Canadian merchants. Dividend Reset Watch: TELUS and BCE both cut dividends to improve financial stability, pushing yields to about 5.6% and shifting focus to deleveraging rather than near-term payout growth. AI Data Centre Buildout: Bell Canada’s 300-megawatt AI data centre near Regina is underway, with Behlen Industries supplying large pre-engineered buildings—another sign Canada’s power-and-infrastructure race is accelerating. Oil Sands Profit Pressure: Oil sands producers reported $13.3B in quarterly profit amid Middle East-driven price spikes, renewing debate over who benefits and who pays at the pump. Sanctions on Defence Supply Chains: Canada imposed sanctions on Streit Group, citing reports that its armoured vehicles have been used by Russia and a Sudanese militia. Markets & Policy: Investors look ahead to key inflation and economic releases, while currency moves and geopolitical risk keep traders on edge.

Community Lending Tech: LoanOrigination.ca launched a Canadian-first multi-tenant Loan Management System for CDFIs, Community Futures and Indigenous financial institutions, aiming to consolidate intake, underwriting, governance, servicing and reporting. Trade & Dairy Pressure: Ottawa is weighing an interim deal with Washington that could lift provincial U.S. alcohol bans and reduce counter-tariffs, while offering partial relief on steel/aluminum and negotiating dairy quota access—raising alarms about “managed trade” concessions. Payments & Cross-Border Rails: Brazil’s central bank is assessing Pix links abroad to support cross-border instant payments, amid U.S. scrutiny of the system. Fintech for Advisors: Snap Projections rolled out “Automated Financial Recommendations” to help Canadian advisors optimize decisions like CPP/OAS timing and TFSA/taxable strategies in one go. Capital Markets Watch: CIRO issued trading halts for JJJ and GEMG, with GEMG later resuming trading. Corporate Payments Deal: Adyen expanded its Toast partnership into the U.S., building on existing Canada ties to support high-volume hospitality payments. Jobs & Macro Mood: Reuters said TSX futures were muted as investors weighed Middle East developments, earnings and upcoming U.S. inflation data.