AGP Executive Report

USMCA Uncertainty: Trump says the U.S. could let the Canada-Mexico deal expire in 2036, turning renewal talks into a high-stakes ultimatum that could rattle Canadian exporters and investors. AI Sovereignty & Risk: Prime Minister Mark Carney warns U.S. AI restrictions on Anthropic highlight “model risk,” pushing Canada to diversify beyond a few American providers ahead of G7 discussions. Canada-EU Defence Procurement: The EU formally concludes SAFE with Canada, letting Canadian firms bid into the bloc’s €150B defence procurement push—an immediate win for defence supply chains. Air Canada Labour: Air Canada and IAMAW reach a tentative agreement covering 11,000+ Canadian employees, pending ratification. Corporate Deals: Andrew Peller agrees to be acquired by Fairfax in an all-cash deal valuing shares at set premiums. Energy & Finance: JPMorgan expands its $1.5T economic security initiative to Canada, targeting energy, defence and critical minerals with new financing. Markets Macro: Risk appetite lifts after a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace deal, sending oil lower and boosting stocks and bonds. Legal/Consumer: A B.C. condo pre-sale rights fight heads to court, pitting buyers against creditor protection in an insolvent development case.

USMCA Uncertainty: Trump says the Canada–Mexico–U.S. trade deal could expire in 2036 unless renewed, putting July talks and Canada’s export planning on edge. Debt & Markets: A new look at public debt warns war spending and higher borrowing costs are pushing sovereign finances toward post-war stress levels. AI “Model Risk”: Mark Carney links the Anthropic shutdown after U.S. export controls to a 2008-style systemic vulnerability, urging Canada to diversify AI supply. G7 Protests in Geneva: Demonstrators set a Tesla on fire and smashed a bank’s windows ahead of the Evian summit, spotlighting anger at concentrated wealth and inequality. Canada–Ireland Push: Carney’s Ireland visit highlights deeper cooperation on AI, health, trade and investment, with OpenText’s major AI hub investment in Cork. Crypto Fraud Case: A Canadian teen pleads guilty in a U.S. court to money laundering tied to a $13M crypto scam and luxury purchases. Regulatory/AML Crackdown: New Zealand’s ASB faces a $6.7M fine for major unchecked transactions, with Canada watching tougher anti-money laundering penalties. Brain Drain Alarm: A report says Canada trains top engineering talent but many leave for the U.S. before careers even start. Eye Care Strategy: Ottawa tables Canada’s first national strategy for eye care to improve access and prevent avoidable vision loss. Food Security & Affordability: Carney backs a national food security strategy aimed at a more affordable, resilient system.

USMCA Shock: Trump says the Canada–Mexico–US trade deal could expire in 2036 unless renewed, putting July talks and Canada’s renewal push in the spotlight. Energy Watch: GlobalData forecasts small modular reactor capacity could rise about sixfold by 2030, but most projects remain stuck in early-stage permitting and cost-risk. Diplomacy & Trade: Mark Carney keeps arguing for a “third path” with Europe, warning middle powers not to chase US favour ahead of the G7; Canada and Ireland also signed a framework to deepen trade, investment, security and AI cooperation. Air Canada Labour: Air Canada reached a tentative IAMAW collective agreement covering 11,000+ employees, with terms pending ratification. AI & Risk: Amazon-linked reporting says it helped trigger Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 shutdown, raising investor and regulatory questions for Canadian tech users. Crypto Crime: US-led action dismantled AudiA6, a suspected $389M laundering network, with Canada among participating countries. Food Prices Pressure: Protein demand is driving whey shortages and price spikes, with spillovers for Canadian dairy-linked supply chains.

USMCA Uncertainty: Trump says the Canada–Mexico–U.S. trade pact could expire in 2036 unless renewed, throwing a fresh cloud over July talks and Canada’s trade planning. Central Bank Watch: Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate at 2.25% as it weighs recession risk and energy-driven inflation, leaving mortgage holders in limbo. Crypto Enforcement: U.S. authorities arrested suspects tied to a crypto laundering service accused of moving about $389M, with Canada among partners in the takedown. Streaming Costs: Ottawa pledges $600M for Canadian audio/visual while reviewing CRTC rules that could raise streaming costs for consumers. Canada–Ireland Pivot: Mark Carney pushes a stronger Canada–Europe alliance, announcing expanded cooperation with Ireland on AI, life sciences, and food security. World Cup Economics: Toronto’s World Cup crowds are strong, but hotel demand is uneven and ticket-price controversy is fueling affordability backlash. Agriculture: Analysts warn Canada’s durum crop may be smaller than forecast as farmers shift acreage toward other wheat types.

Trade Talks Under Pressure: Trump says USMCA renewal may not happen next month and hints the pact could expire in 2036 unless all three countries act—raising fresh uncertainty for Canada, which sends over 70% of exports to the U.S. Food Affordability Push: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s $3.2B food security strategy targets grocery competition with $1B for food terminals and hubs plus Competition Bureau funding to crack down on anti-competitive conduct. Postal Cost Cuts: Canada Post will convert about 485,000 more addresses to community mailboxes in 2027, adding to earlier rollouts as it seeks financial self-sustainability. Banking/Policy Watch: Carney begins a two-day Ireland visit focused on trade, investment, life sciences, research and security ahead of the G7 and the USMCA review. Corporate Restructuring: Sleep Number filed for Chapter 11 and agreed to sell to Sleep Country Canada in a court-supervised process, blaming weak demand and tariff-driven uncertainty. Energy & Agriculture: Financial Post spotlights canola’s shift into low-carbon diesel and notes the Bank of Canada isn’t rushing to rescue housing.

Trade Uncertainty: Trump says the USMCA with Canada and Mexico could expire in 2036 unless renewed, throwing a fresh shadow over July talks and Canada’s push for continuity. Markets & Rates: The Canadian dollar slid as oil eased on hopes of a Middle East peace deal, while the Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting. Corporate Finance: Wall Financial reported lower Q1 2027 earnings; CIRO issued trading halts for Smartset Services (SMAR.P) and Highcliff Metals (HCM.H). Restructuring: Nova Scotia court approved a sales process for CFFI Ventures’ assets in a restructuring tied to about $1.4B in debt. Tech & Jobs: OpenText plans €105M in Ireland to add 400 jobs, expanding agentic AI, sovereign cloud and cybersecurity for EMEA. Energy & Food Security: Canada signed a General Security of Information Agreement with France and unveiled a national food security strategy worth $3.2B. Agri-Bio Risk: Canada temporarily restricted Texas livestock imports after a new New World screwworm case was found.

USMCA Uncertainty: Trump says the USMCA with Canada and Mexico could expire in 2036 unless renewed, throwing a fresh cloud over talks ahead of June 16-17 and raising stakes for Canada’s export-heavy economy. Food Security Push: Prime Minister Carney unveils Canada’s first National Food Security Strategy, pledging C$3B over a decade to boost grocery competition, fund food terminals and processing, and cut reliance on foreign supply. World Cup Meets Finance & Tech: Kraken becomes Official Crypto Exchange Supporter of FIFA World Cup 2026, while TRM Labs warns fans about crypto-linked ticket and betting scams; meanwhile, YouTube and TikTok streaming the first 10 minutes could pressure FIFA’s media-rights pricing. Cross-Border Infrastructure: The Gordie Howe International Bridge opening is delayed again, with US-Canada trade tensions cited. Crypto Crime Crackdown: Europol dismantles the AudiA6 laundering network tied to ransomware, and US prosecutors charge two men in a $389M Bitcoin laundering scheme. Corporate & Markets: Transat reports Q2 2026 results hit by fuel costs; Glencore Canada resumes Horne Smelter emissions-reduction work after Quebec’s Bill 11. Real Estate: Hazelview and Sierra break ground on a 217-unit purpose-built rental in Toronto’s Leaside, with 43 affordable units.

Trade & Sovereignty: Trump says the U.S. may let USMCA expire in 2036 instead of renewing next month, putting Canada and Mexico on notice as separate talks loom. Food Prices & Supply Chains: Prime Minister Carney launches a national food security strategy with $3B over 10 years to boost local production, cut grocery costs, and help independent grocers compete. Central Banking Watch: Bank of Canada holds its policy rate at 2.25%, citing mixed growth and inflation signals. Fintech & Banking Licensing: KOHO raises $130M at a $1.33B valuation to keep pushing for a federal banking licence. Markets & Infrastructure: Canada and the U.S. delay opening the Gordie Howe bridge as “outstanding issues” are resolved. Energy & Commodities: Wet weather and a Cenovus power outage tighten Western Canada crude supply, with knock-on effects for U.S. storage at Cushing. Postal Modernization: Canada Post plans to convert about 485,000 more addresses to community mailboxes in 2027. Crypto Crime Crackdown: Europol says investigators dismantled AudiA6, a major crypto laundering service tied to $389M, with arrests including a Canadian-linked international operation.

Bank of Canada Watch: The central bank held its policy rate at 2.25%, citing mixed growth and inflation risks and keeping “wiggle room” for future moves. Identity & Credit Security: Ontario residents can start using a digital credit lock (credit freeze) on July 1 via Equifax Canada, aiming to curb identity theft and fraud. Investor Sentiment: A new RIA pulse check says Canadians are prioritizing affordability, inflation and economic resilience when choosing advisers. Big Banks & Community Capital: RBC is backing Seven Generations Capital’s growth fund to support Indigenous economic development, while BMO is funding Canada Soccer initiatives with a $250,000 boost to the Canada Soccer Foundation. Cross-Border Risk to Trade: Canada temporarily halted certain Texas livestock imports after a second New World screwworm case in South Texas, tightening entry rules for cattle, horses and other livestock tied to the state. Markets & Corporate Moves: Aurora Cannabis posted record fiscal 2026 results, while Koho moved closer to a banking licence after raising $130M. Fintech Launch: Migratum rolled out an identity-and-financial “operating system” for migrants across five markets, pitching lower remittance costs and broader regulated access.

Banking & Rates: The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25%, citing a soft economy, higher energy prices, and trade risks, while leaving “wiggle room” for future moves. Markets & Credit: Amazon’s record loonie bond sale is pressuring Canada’s fixed-income market, pushing risk spreads wider and making other borrowers pause. Investing & Regulation: CIRO set a public disciplinary hearing for Osama Navaid over allegations of misappropriating client money while at Scotia Securities. Energy & Trade: India is looking to buy more Canadian oil and gas, but says Canada’s regulatory and project approvals could slow cooperation; separately, Cenovus warned a west-coast pipeline deal is “unfinanceable” under current carbon-capture-linked conditions. Corporate Canada: CIBC will launch a SpaceX Canadian depositary receipt on the TSX, while USG/CGC opened a CAD$210M wallboard plant in Alberta and Major Drilling posted record fiscal revenue. Policy & Justice: Chief Justice Richard Wagner said Jordan stays of proceedings are not a fix for systemic trial delays and warned against AI-generated “fake” court precedents. Consumer & Retail: Uniqlo announced five new Canadian stores opening by fall 2026, including in the GTA.

Banking & Payments: Nuvei is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Payoneer for about $2.7B, a deal that would combine Nuvei’s merchant payments with Payoneer’s cross-border transfers. Regulation & Consumer Protection: CCTS released new compliance report cards, finding half of audited telecom/TV providers’ websites failed to properly surface CCTS complaint info via keyword search. Central Banking: The Bank of Canada is set to make its interest-rate decision amid economic turbulence, with markets watching for any shift after mixed growth signals. AI in Finance: Scotiabank says it’s accelerating AI use to boost productivity and strengthen anti-money-laundering checks. Energy & Industry: Cenovus CEO says Alberta’s proposed pipeline to the Pacific is currently “unfinanceable” under Canada’s regulatory and carbon-pricing regime. Trade & Geopolitics: PM Carney says the Gordie Howe Bridge will open this week despite Trump’s earlier threat to block it. Housing & Wealth: A Lake Tremblant estate sold for a record $19.8M CAD, underscoring strength in Québec’s luxury market. Investing & Markets: KBRA’s Global ABS 2026 conference recap highlights active securitization demand across Europe, including renewables and infrastructure finance.

Middle East Sanctions: Canada and five allies announced coordinated sanctions on networks tied to West Bank settler violence, alongside entry bans for Israeli officials and settlement leaders—raising pressure on accountability and settlement financing. Household Finance Stress: A new survey finds 60% of Canadians feel anxious about personal finances, with nearly half unable to cover basic expenses for more than a month without debt, driven by food, housing and energy costs. Agri-Food Climate Funding: CANZA launched a marketplace to help farmers access climate-smart funding and training, aiming to reward practices like emissions sequestration and biodiversity protection. Energy Finance Deal: FOCOL secured US$325M syndicated loan support (with CIBC, RBC, Scotiabank and others) plus U.S. export credit backing for LNG-linked infrastructure in the Bahamas. Banking & Markets: TSX slipped as commodities weighed and AI-stock swings hit sentiment; separate coverage highlights TD’s carbon removal deal and ongoing investor caution. Aviation & Travel: Air Canada adds a new Quebec City–Guadeloupe nonstop route for winter 2027, expanding Caribbean connectivity. Public Safety Debate: Saskatchewan’s Marshals policing investments face criticism over staffing and officer sourcing. Business & Investment Moves: Canfor agreed to buy Calgary’s I-joist maker PinkWood for $68M, while Osisko reported new Cariboo Gold infill drilling results.

Airline Liquidity Support: Ottawa launched the Liquidity for Airline Sector Resilience facility, offering up to $150M in repayable loans to airlines hit by elevated jet fuel costs, aiming to protect connectivity and jobs. AI + Energy Tension: Reuters reports Alberta is pitching cheap natural gas to power AI data centers, a strategy that could clash with Canada’s push to link new capacity to cleaner power. Trade + Markets: Canada and Türkiye agreed to start exploratory talks toward a free trade agreement, building on recent leader calls and expanded air links. Corporate Finance Moves: Amazon raised C$14B in a record Canadian-dollar bond sale to fund AI infrastructure; meanwhile, Buffalo Potash upsized its non-brokered private placement to at least C$7.5M. Tech/Payments Deal: Lloyds partnered with Stripe in a $160B tie-up to speed up small-business payments setup. Mining Updates: Eldorado Gold produced first copper concentrate at its McIlvenna Bay project in Saskatchewan, targeting commercial production in Q3. Indigenous Equity Finance: Âsokan Generational Developments’ Justin Bourque will join an Indigenous equity ownership panel at Global Energy Show Canada on loan guarantees. Food Security Debate: Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami says Nutrition North isn’t working and wants it replaced with a program focused on Inuit households.

Airline Fuel Relief Clash: Ottawa’s new jet-fuel loan program offers up to $150M per airline, but WestJet “strongly opposes” it, arguing past forgiven loans turned into taxpayer subsidies and that carriers may never repay. Capital Markets & Regulation: CIRO scheduled a June 18 settlement hearing for RBC Dominion Securities over supervisory failures tied to futures trading by two reps. Energy & Commodities: A uranium outlook argues the $150/lb U3O8 level is becoming a structural “incentive price” as supply lags reactor demand, with AI-linked nuclear power demand adding pressure. Mining Valuation Shift: Copper coverage points to a 2026 deficit forcing higher price decks and a P/NAV reset for senior producers. Trade & Investment: Canada and Türkiye begin exploratory talks toward a free trade agreement, with energy cooperation including potential CANDU-related collaboration. Markets Snapshot: U.S. stocks rebounded modestly after a tech-led rout; Canada’s TSX edged up. Infrastructure & Local Economy: Ontario announced a $53M Highway 17 rehabilitation (not full twinning) and Rio Tinto expanded its Canada Fund to $13M for 2026, including northern B.C. Indigenous partners. Household Finance: Condo glut stories push for converting unsold units into social housing as affordability strains deepen.

Banking & Fraud: TD Bank says a Dartmouth, N.S. customer is responsible for nearly $15K lost to fraudulent e-transfers, even though he claims he was the victim of account hacking—raising fresh questions about how banks decide who pays. Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its rate for a fifth straight time, with markets watching the central bank’s wording for clues on recession risk and geopolitical pressures. Payments & Wealth Tech: Wealthsimple is pushing into business banking, a sign founders want multi-currency, global-friendly tools—not just personal investing. Rewards & Cards: BMO rolls out Blue Rewards, replacing AIR MILES with Blue Points across chequing and commercial cards. Trade & Supply Chains: Canada restricts U.S. livestock imports after a second New World screwworm case in Texas, while CUSMA compliance costs are frustrating some Canadian exporters. Energy & Markets: Nine Mile Metals starts trading on the OTCID platform to broaden access for U.S. investors. Defence Innovation: Canada is in talks to join NATO’s Innovation Fund, after years of hesitation. Business Expansion: Air Canada and Abra Group sign an MoU to expand travel and connectivity across the Americas.

Banking & Housing Stress: The Bank of Canada warned that about 9% of Toronto-area mortgage holders may not qualify to refinance or renew in 2027 if home prices stay weak, raising the risk of payment trouble. Rates Watch: With the economy stuck and trade uncertainty lingering, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% while weighing inflation risks against slower growth. Jobs vs. Recession Talk: Canada’s labour market surprised on the upside with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate, even as some analysts keep calling it a “technical recession” after two negative GDP quarters. Corporate & Consumer Finance: Canada Post posted a $205M first-quarter loss before tax as parcel volumes and revenues slid, pointing to the need for modernization. Public Policy & Inclusion: A new national inclusive hiring campaign urges employers to create at least one opportunity for people with disabilities or other underrepresented groups. Heritage Funding: Parks Canada committed up to $193,000 to help Willowbank restore key parts of its historic site, matched by community donations. Global Finance Angle: Barclays says the 2026 World Cup could boost select U.S. sectors like media and sports betting, but likely won’t be a game changer for most companies. Trade & Politics: Poilievre signalled federal policy changes to ease Alberta separatist concerns, while USMCA renewal delays are stoking trade tension.